Written by JP Quinn – @AttackingCB
Last Season
A 13th place finish last season was seen as a relative success after a turbulent summer. Rafa Benítez left the club at the end of his contract and was replaced by Steve Bruce, Rondón’s loan was not made permanent and Ayoze Pérez was sold to Leicester City. The club broke their transfer record to bring Joelinton in for £40m but after 1 win in the opening 7 games, many feared the worst. Much of the season was spent very much in a relegation battle but Newcastle were able to keep their heads above water and eventually pulled away from the stragglers at the bottom of the league. After the enforced break in the season, 2 wins and 2 draws ensured Premier League safety but was followed by just 1 point in the last 5 games.
The final points total of 44 was in line with the previous 2 seasons, but in every other area the team appears to have got worse:
Scoring just 1 goal per game, there was an obvious issue in attack but what went slightly under the radar was the fairly solid defence, which had been the basis of Rafa’s reign, starting to leak more chances.
In the first half of the season we saw the attack get worse and the defensive numbers rise alarmingly – the team was consistently giving up far more chances than it was creating. But in the latter part of the season we saw an improvement at both ends, particularly the defensive side, which coincided (perhaps counter-intuitively) with a change in system from a back 5 to a back 4. I have previously written about how Newcastle were by far the least pressing team in the league under Bruce and this passive style seems to invite pressure, while the more positive approach allowed them to actually control the game a bit more.
The break in the season may have also had an impact, although the positive changes began just before lockdown. It also somewhat continues the trend from previous seasons under Rafa to finish the season strongly. I believe the team were fortunate not to be in more trouble for much of the season, when they were able to pick up points despite poor performances, but there were signs that Bruce had found a more balanced set-up by the end. A peak of 1 xG per game is hardly something to get too excited about though – the attack actually ranked 98th out of 98 across the big 5 leagues.
Jonjo Shelvey finished the season as the club’s top scorer, with 6 league goals, while record signing Joelinton managed just 2 despite featuring in every game. Dwight Gayle proved to be more of a threat in his limited game time, with Andy Carroll offering something from the bench when fit enough, but no one was reliably scoring or creating chances.
Transfers
This summer we’ve had to endure more drama, with the ongoing saga of a proposed takeover, involving a human rights abusing state and a power struggle with another human rights abusing state. Combine that with a pandemic (the club apparently regarding the scouting team as an unnecessary expenditure) and the transfer window looked like it might have been forgotten about. But not to worry, with Steve Bruce leading the recruitment, the club has actually done some significant business.
The biggest issue going forward was with Joelinton, brought in for big money and given the number 9 shirt, seemingly expected to carry the goal burden. But this was a young player, in a new country, playing a different role than he was accustomed to, in a team that doesn’t create many chances. Though you still expect more.
His numbers show that he simply wasn’t getting enough opportunities to score, with 4.8 expected goals across the whole season and an xG per shot of 0.09 compared to Gayle’s 0.2. The team looked better with Gayle, a natural poacher, willing to run in behind and sniff out chances in the box. He suffered a long-term injury in pre-season but in Callum Wilson the club have signed a player in a similar mold – 0.18 xG per shot – and someone who should be capable of getting double figures.
Wilson’s former Bournemouth teammate Ryan Fraser has also joined on a free transfer. 7 goals and 14 assists in 18/19 had top teams interested but the move didn’t materialise and last season he wasn’t so impressive. However, he has admitted to being less than 100% focused, was part of a struggling team and still showed signs that he can be a creative force.
Vis by @Edit_Kev
After loaning 2 left-backs last season, Jamal Lewis has joined from Norwich City to hopefully solve that problem position. At 22, he’s a player who may need some time but he has potential and Dummett still offers a reliable option there.
Jeff Hendrick has also joined on a free from Burnley and adds depth to the squad, although it remains to be seen where that leaves the Longstaff brothers and potentially Dan Barlaser in the pecking order, with a number of midfield options now.
The main concern now would probably be the lack of depth of real quality but it should be noted that there are simply too many players in the squad already. The club has been trying to shift the likes of Lazaar, Saivet, Murphy and Aarons for several years now but they remain on the books. The team could do with an improvement at right-back but has 3 already – as ever, the lack of real planning is evident.
Line-Up
Bruce stuck with an extremely negative 5 at the back for most of last season, claiming that the team wasn’t capable of playing any other way, but performances improved when he switched to a more positive 4-2-3-1 and you would expect him to favour something similar this season, given the signings made.
That front 4 starts to look like a more dangerous proposition, with plenty of pace and ability, though there may be some doubts about whether the defence is individually good enough to cope with a more expansive set-up, giving freedom to the likes of Saint-Maximin. The question remains too about where Joelinton fits into this, with the club surely not prepared to write off such a costly asset just yet.
The biggest question mark is still over the manager. Despite an acceptable position in the league, there were major issues with the performances last season. There remain issues with the squad but he undoubtedly has more to work with this season – this team should be capable of causing more problems. However, things will likely have to improve just to be on a par with last season, so it could still be a struggle.
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