Written by John-Paul Quinn – @AttackingCB
So we’re just past the halfway point in the season, having played 21 league games, and Newcastle sit in 13th place with 25 points. 5 points above the relegation zone and the same distance from Tottenham in 6th, this would seem like a pretty comfortable position – better than some feared at least, after the departure of Rafa Benítez and the appointment of Steve Bruce as his successor.
In terms of points per game, the team is marginally ahead of the performance in the last 2 seasons – the results are basically fine. But in every other measure, the team appears to have regressed. They are scoring fewer goals, conceding more and the ‘expected’ numbers (xG is a measure of chance quality) back that up (in fact they suggest things are even worse). These sorts of numbers are going to catch up with you eventually and perhaps we’re starting to see that with the last 3 results (losses to Man United, Everton and Leicester).
The long-term trend since the summer is worrying:
Newcastle are consistently getting beat on xG this season. Some good fortune and good goalkeeping has meant that they’ve won some games they didn’t really deserve to. In particular, against Sheffield United, Southampton and Palace, Newcastle were really poor for large spells of those games but managed to come out with 3 points.
The possession figure has also dropped significantly. Newcastle were not a possession-based team under Rafa but now comfortably have the lowest possession figures in the league (more than 4% lower than next-lowest Burnley). The pass % has not dropped however, suggesting this is more an issue of winning the ball back than keeping it. Indeed, Understat has Newcastle on the highest PPDA in the league BY FAR and with a much higher figure than previous years. PPDA stands for passes per defensive action (in the opposition half) and is a measure of pressing – a lower number indicating a more pressing team. No other team is sitting off the opposition to such an extent.
Is this necessarily a bad thing? No, but the other figures would suggest it isn’t having a positive effect and considering Benítez was accused at times of being overly cautious, this appears to be an even more negative, one-dimensional version of his system.
In terms of the attack, Bruce has tinkered with the system and personnel but so far hasn’t found a winning formula – the forwards have 3 league goals between them. Almirón, despite his long run without a goal or assist, has been the best at getting into goalscoring positions (enough to score 4 goals) but a combination of poor finishing and some bad luck mean he has just 1 goal. His creative output should be a concern though.
Similarly with Joelinton, his expected numbers are better than his actual output but you want more from a £40m signing. Doubts about him are increasing, although you wonder whether any striker would struggle in this team. Carroll is offering something but he isn’t scoring either and Saint-Maximin is clearly dangerous but his end product is inconsistent – no one is reliably going to score or create goals regularly. So far the defenders have bailed the team out, with 10 of Newcastle’s 20 goals. Jonjo Shelvey, not known for his goalscoring, has another 5. This won’t continue forever.
Of course this doesn’t fall completely on the manager. The other significant changes over the summer were the loss of Ayoze Pérez and Salomon Rondón (23 goals between them last season), effectively replaced by Saint-Maximin and Joelinton. The front 3 cost a combined £80m but have just 1 goal each… this was always a concern and the recruitment needs to be questioned.
So if the team is getting worse in pretty much every way, is relegation inevitable? Well, 5 points is still a pretty good cushion at this stage and there are plenty of other teams struggling. Norwich look likely to go down now, while Villa, Watford, Bournemouth and West Ham all have issues. Newcastle need another 15 points from 17 games to reach the magic 40 points, which even for a bad team is achievable (and they may not need that many). They are definitely still in the fight but have about a 75% chance of staying up.
The January transfer window is now open and Newcastle have tended to strengthen in January, although they never seem to be organised about it. They are likely to look at loan options and Bruce has made it clear he wants a forward.
The manager has clearly recognised the issues going forward but hasn’t been able to solve them so far and hasn’t maintained the defensive solidity from the last 2 seasons either. We saw improvements in the second half of the season in both cases under Rafa and there needs to be similar improvements this time around or Newcastle could be in real danger. Whatever happens, the club is certainly not moving forwards and again finds itself worrying about relegation.
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